People who support a side of the war between the US/Israel and Iran keep trying to convince me of the justification for war from their perspective. What they don’t seem to understand – and they certainly aren’t willing to listen – is we cannot afford war at all.
The planetary systems – you know, the stuff that makes our life on this planet possible – are hitting the upper limits everywhere. Or to put it more elegantly, as Johan Rockström regularly states: “we’re starting to hit the ceiling of the biophysical coping capacity of the whole Earth System.”
This means that when you look at the massive emissions of war, we must see it as an accelerant. It’s also why end-of-timers should never be given the reins of power, especially now.
In the last few weeks, we learned that a sharp rise in global warming, to about 0.35°C every decade, is now happening, excluding natural fluctuations like El Niño – which is on the way. It’s looking like a doozy too.
A recent UN IPCC report states that ‘Parts of the planet will become uninhabitable’ – climate change will likely make the world sicker, hungrier, poorer and more dangerous in the next 18 years with an “unavoidable” increase in risks. Note the use of the word “unavoidable” BUT the word “likely” should be deleted. Because it’s either unavoidable or it isn’t right? Common in climate reporting, if you haven’t noticed.
Moving on, one in three people globally are effected by extreme heat, and in some tropical and subtropical regions, heat restricts outdoor activity for older adults for between one-quarter and one-third of the year. The most severe challenges are found in south-west Asia (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Oman), south Asia (Pakistan, Bangladesh, India) and parts of west Africa (Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Senegal, Djibouti and Niger).
It’s not just the elderly, the young are impacted too. Read more here: ‘A sobering preview’: extreme heat now affects one in three people globally, study finds | Extreme heat | The Guardian.
It’s not just humans, all life is at risk, with 50% of insects in the Amazon already living near their upper heat tolerance! We need the Amazon, however, for a healthy rainforest, insect activity is responsible for pollination, decomposition, and soil nutrient recycling, and declines in insect populations disrupt plant reproduction, nutrient cycling, and food webs, creating broader ecological changes throughout the Amazon ecosystem.
Read all about it: Half of Amazon Insects May Struggle to Survive Rising Temperatures, Study Finds – AOL.
And the Potsdam Institute, the scientists that cover the Nine Planetary Boundaries, have uncovered the amount of carbon emissions released are now double the planetary boundary.
Here’s a key paragraph: Based on the condition of limiting the rise in global average temperature to within 1.5°C, the analysis showed that Earth’s safe limit for annual CO₂ emissions is approximately 4–17 gigatons (Gt CO₂ per year). However, humanity’s current annual emissions amount to about 37 gigatons (Gt CO₂ per year). This level exceeds Earth’s safe operating space by more than twofold.
Read more: Carbon emissions now more than double the planetary boundary, analysis finds
We can’t afford war
So, we’re in a bit of a pickle planetary-wise, and we’re adding war on top of that? It’s NUTS!! I just hope this unifies enough of us to stand up and say a big bloody NO, because those leading us today, are leading us off a cliff.
There’s lots in the media (I know, information overload on steroids), but I found the below really interesting. It’s a briefing for journalists on why war is a climate issue, with the goal of educating journalists on the key issues. It’s a worthwhile listen.
One important note. Rawan Damen from Arab Reporters for Investigate Journalism, states that military emissions account for 5.5% of global emissions, the equivalent of the global concrete sector. She’s right, as far as an official number goes.
However, the challenge with understanding military emissions is we only know estimates, because the whole defense/defence industry is not reporting. This has some background. Military emissions reporting was added as an exclusion in the 1997 Kyoto protocol, which then became voluntary reporting under the 2015 Paris 1.5°C climate agreement.
Following this, when the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) attempted to collate and publish the emissions data from militaries, it found only a handful of countries published the bare minimum required by UN reporting guidelines, and many countries with large militaries published nothing at all. So, the truth is, we have no idea.
And we have absolutely no idea how many emissions are being released in this war (we will at some point) and we are only getting a glimpse of the ecological destruction taking place too. It’s going to be a very bad outcome for all life in this region.
Here’s some stories from this week on war and ecocide.
- The Iran War Is Also a Climate War
- All Modern Warfare Is Chemical Warfare
- Bombing of Iran’s oil infrastructure to have major environmental fallout, experts warn | US-Israel war on Iran | The Guardian
- Why air strikes on Tehran oil facilities are causing black rain
- Tehran Shrouded in Toxic Smoke After Israel Strikes Fuel Depots | TIME
- ‘Night turned into day’: Iranians tell of strikes on oil depots
Add Russia/Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon, Sudan, and all other wars and civil wars happening right now, and the impact is off the charts. As I share in my new polycrisis workshop, where war is discussed a lot…
Machismo on display
aka a lot of dick wagging going on
There are SO many global impacts from this war (such as crematoriums closed in India because they can’t power the ghats) but the machismo on display, especially from the Secretary of War, Hegseth, is appalling. Earlier in the week, the Guardian published – ‘A very dangerous person’: alarm as Pete Hegseth revels in carnage of Iran war | US military | The Guardian.
Two statements
“Death and destruction from the sky all day long.”
“This was never meant to be a fair fight, and it is not a fair fight. We are punching them while they’re down, which is exactly how it should be.”
With machismo, Christian nationalism and callousness toward the lives of US troops, they say, Hegseth’s puerile displays on TV are aimed at sating Trump’s desire for a warmonger worthy of the manosphere.
But it’s Carole Cadwalladr’s piece in The Nerve that is really worth a read – Hooked on dopamine, fuelled by testosterone, powered by AI: this is the broligarchs’ war
The news cycle hasn’t just moved on: we are now deep into the testosterone zone, the fizzing, almost sexual excitement of war.
Did you know that ancient civilizations – like the Vikings or Papua New Guineans – used to kill or isolate people like Pete Hegseth? In our modern times, Donald Trump has handed him the keys to the most powerful military the world has ever seen – what could possibly go wrong?!?
I look forward to the day he is brought to his knees, and we can only hope it’s soon – for all our sakes. He is a monster.
- Pete Hegseth brings combative style as face of Trump’s war in Iran
- The Unbearable Lightness of Signalgate – The Atlantic
The Tech Broligarchy
Carole Cadwalladr talks about the Tech Broligarchy in the article above, so here’s a different story about a key member of that clan – Palantir CEO Makes Shocking Confession on Disrupting Democratic Power | The New Republic. Watch our ladies, they are coming for us.
We are energy blind
I really recommend following Nate Hagen’s The Great Simplification. He’s summarizing the challenges we face very clearly, and this video is a very useful guide to the wider implications for global society!
Friends content and my own
If you want to get more on the war and the wider impacts, please watch The Sh*t Show. We talked through this across the world, to help people understand where we are, because when you know, you can plan and get prepared.
Big shout out to Joanne Flinn for joining us to discuss what’s going on with climate reporting in publicly listed businesses and for staying to talk news too. Her reporting insights are more promising than you might think, so a bonus.
Also watch Inside the Manosphere and tell me what you think when you do? I also recommend watching it with your children (if you have them). It’s a very interesting view to hear.
Dig into the news
The world news page is updated daily, so check in whenever it suits you. It covers news and thought leadership across all issues relevant to the polycrisis, as well as some light stuff, because we can’t be serious all the time. To get to the news, click through on the image below, and a reminder, this goes back weeks, so have a scan and read/watch/listen to whatever jumps out at you.
Let me know what caught your attention? Or share with me what has your attention now? There’s a lot going on, which means none of us can cover everything. Besides, it’s always great to get feedback so I know I’m delivering something of value.
Cheers
Andrea
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