I’m tired. Are you tired? It’s pretty intense huh? Because who knows where it’s all going to land. From war (“new” one today), to the collapsing rules-based order, climate impacts, social disruption, and the poor copping the brunt of it all… yeah, it takes a toll. Take care of yourself, OK? We all need to do that.
This week I want to highlight some really important information, to help you navigate what’s going on, because being able to see the bigger story is really important AND really hard as we’re in a constant state of news shocks.
But before I do anything else, I highly recommend you take two hours to sit down and listen to this conversation between Nate Hagens and Ian McGilchrist. Ian is a man worth listening to in this moment for our world, because we sure do need more wisdom.
Right, onto the news
I found this very insightful, especially when you’re looking at what’s next from a polycrisis view. Things will break, but how bad will the collapse be? The decision in front of us all – The Thermodynamic Endgame of Industrial Civilization.
Then there’s this – 2/3rds of people believe unproven claims? ‘Staggering’ number of people believe unproven claims about vaccines, raw milk and more
Next up, an important piece on what’s happening in Asia, published in the New York Times this week – The Iran War Sent Shock Waves Through Asia That Are Likely to Spread – The New York Times.
Key highlights:
- Asia expected to see serious, gradual impacts from losing access to a huge portion of the world’s oil and gas. But the conflict’s economic and social impacts have hit the region harder and faster than officials and experts expected
- Many countries across the Asia-Pacific are experiencing sudden jolts of disruption that they are struggling to manage
- Governments are taking on enormous debt to slow inflation. By year’s end, in the most dire projections by the United Nations and others, millions across Asia could be pushed into poverty
- “The impacts are so rapid and deep,” said Phillip Cornell, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center who is based in Sri Lanka. “Just from a magnitude perspective, this is really very, very, very large.”
- The impacts won’t stay local either, because: The rest of Asia, excluding China, is responsible for as much of the global economy as the United States or Europe.
This article on Twitter is also worth a read: 🇦🇺Craig Tindale on X: “War, El Niño, Pestilence, and Famine: The Coming Shock to Global Food Supplies ” / X. To help you understand this, here’s an overview (done with AI), which is still VERY long, but it’s important to see all the implications in play.
It’s not just about the war, it never was. It includes climate impacts, as well as geopolitical impacts from all the decisions being made (e.g.: hoarding), and how it all comes together, aka the polycrisis in focus.
- A simultaneous shock to sulphuric acid, naphtha supply, and a likely strong El Niño could create a systemic global food risk in 2026–2027.
- Sulphuric acid is a critical bottleneck because nearly half is used to produce phosphate fertilisers.
- Supply is being constrained by Hormuz disruption and China halting exports to protect domestic agriculture.
- Countries are prioritising fertiliser over mining inputs, shifting geopolitical and industrial balances.
- A probable strong El Niño will coincide with these shortages, amplifying agricultural stress.
- Higher input costs plus climate stress will likely reduce yields and trigger cascading economic impacts.
- Secondary effects include food inflation and logistical disruptions (e.g., Panama Canal).
Plant biology and fertiliser constraint:
- Crops under heat stress require more phosphorus and potassium, not less.
- These nutrients depend on sulphuric acid processing, which is now constrained.
- Substitutes or misapplication (salts, excess nitrogen) can worsen crop outcomes.
- Removing key fertiliser inputs during extreme climate conditions strips crops of survival mechanisms.
Petrochemical/agrochemical bottleneck:
- Modern agriculture depends heavily on naphtha-derived chemicals for pesticides and herbicides.
- A Hormuz disruption would break this supply chain and reduce crop protection capacity.
- East Asia is highly dependent on Gulf naphtha and cannot easily substitute supply.
- Loss of BTX aromatics would significantly reduce global agrochemical production.
- Without solvents and intermediates, pesticides become unusable even if active ingredients exist.
- Alternative production routes cannot scale quickly enough to replace losses.
- Without chemical protection, crops revert to biological competition and suffer large yield losses.
- Potential global calorie loss could reach levels affecting billions of people indirectly.
- Livestock systems would also collapse due to feed shortages.
Market and geopolitical dynamics:
- Markets would rapidly shift from trade to hoarding and export restrictions.
- Major exporters may restrict inputs, worsening shortages for import-dependent regions.
- Countries like Brazil are highly exposed due to dependence on imported inputs.
- Food-importing nations face balance-of-payments crises under price spikes.
- A Hormuz disruption acts as a systemic famine trigger through supply chains.
Climate interaction (El Niño):
- El Niño causes regionally uneven but globally significant yield disruptions.
- Climate stress increases dependence on agrochemicals exactly when they are scarce.
- Pest and disease pressures rise under these conditions, worsening crop losses.
- The interaction between shortages and climate is multiplicative, not additive.
Structural system vulnerabilities:
- Regions dependent on imports and exposed to El Niño face highest failure risk.
- Fertiliser rationing during peak biological demand creates nonlinear yield collapse.
- Shipping delays can render fertiliser ineffective due to missed planting windows.
- Costs are rising simultaneously across inputs, logistics, and energy.
- Governments are actively reallocating scarce inputs toward domestic food security.
Third-order amplifiers:
- Drought and floods both reduce fertiliser effectiveness (“double nutrient loss”).
- El Niño disrupts fisheries, removing both food and organic fertiliser inputs.
- Reduced fertiliser use today depletes soils, causing multi-year yield declines.
- Acid shortages also constrain critical mineral production needed for energy transition.
- Climate impacts reduce energy supply (e.g., hydropower), compounding industrial stress.
Winners, losers, and system stress:
- Integrated producers and resource-rich nations benefit; import-dependent systems lose.
- Insurance systems are under strain and reducing coverage for agriculture.
- Export controls and “fertiliser diplomacy” are fragmenting global trade.
- Food shocks may trigger unrest, migration, and political instability.
Adaptive responses:
- Precision agriculture and resilient crop varieties will accelerate adoption.
- Industrial recycling of sulphur and alternative inputs will expand but lag demand.
- Smallholders risk exclusion, increasing inequality and black-market activity.
Logistics chokepoints:
- Panama Canal drought risk could further disrupt global food trade flows.
Quantified risks:
- Fertiliser shortages could reach 12–25% depending on severity.
- Major crops could see meaningful yield declines across key regions.
- Food prices are likely to rise globally, especially in emerging markets.
- Import-dependent countries face potential debt and currency crises.
Strategic outlook:
- The next 18–36 months will be defined by volatility and fragmented trade.
- Food insecurity hotspots are likely in Africa and the Middle East.
- Critical minerals and energy transition timelines will be disrupted.
- Policy responses will increasingly favor domestic resilience over global trade.
Bottom line: the core risk is a synchronized shock where climate stress increases input needs while supply constraints reduce availability, creating a high-probability global food system disruption.
I’d suggest 🇦🇺Craig Tindale is worth a follow.
The Nerd Reich
Palantir decided to publish its 22-point manifesto this week, and it went down about as well as you can expect. A sample of the opinions and articles published since, which broadens across the whole tech bro clan. We better get a hold of this, and even Ian Bremmer has recognized tech’s leadership as a global risk to democracy.
- How the Tech World Turned Evil | The New Republic
- The Palantir Manifesto’s Controversial Ideas on AI, Surveillance & Autonomous Weapons | DW News
- Technofacism? Why Palantir’s pro-West ‘manifesto’ has critics alarmed | Technology News | Al Jazeera
- Read Palantir’s 22-Point Manifesto Generating Buzz – Business Insider
- Yanis Varoufakis on X: “Palantir were kind enough to sum up its hideous ideology in 22 points. And I have taken the liberty of annotating each one of them. Here is my interpretation of all 22 of them (preserving the original numbering – for the original see their tweet below): 1. Silicon Valley owes an” / X
Other reads worth a look
Eco masculinity is needed, versus petro masculinity. Yes, being climate conscious isn’t masculine, but as Andrew Boyd concludes: what’s more “protector masculinity” than protecting the Earth? ‘Petro-masculinity’ is destroying the planet. Can eco-masculinity help save it? | Andrew Boyd | The Guardian.
Probably the most important read on the Rape Academy news story this week. In it, you’ll understand the real numbers, which helps us see that we can address this challenge, versus being overwhelmed by the scale the 62 million figure represents – 62 Million: What we’re missing about the online rape academy – The New Feminist.
Signing off from a very hot and steamy Singapore. I can’t imagine what it’s going to be like when El Niño hits!
Friends content and my own
My old mate and former colleague, Phil Fersht, writes a pretty in-your-face article on the risks to jobs from AI. Important we get this message and prepare accordingly, including making sure our governments do what’s needed – Stop pretending AI won’t gut the workforce. Dario Amodei just told you it will. | LinkedIn
We had Dr Jane Tuomola on The Sh*t Show this week and had a deep dive into developing our resilience muscles – something we all need right now!! Have a listen.
Here’s a quick clip from the show, where Jane discusses the three circles of control, influence and concern. Useful advice for these times!
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Dig into the news
When you go into the daily news app, remember to save to your home screen and you can check the news anytime. Updated throughout the day. This news curation tool covers news and thought leadership across all issues relevant to the polycrisis, as well as some light stuff, because we can’t be serious all the time. To get to the news, click through on the image below, and a reminder, this goes back weeks, so have a scan and read/watch/listen to whatever jumps out at you. The categories are right on top now as well, so you can dig into whatever issue you’re on top of.
Let me know what caught your attention? Or share with me what has your attention now? There’s a lot going on, which means none of us can cover everything. Besides, it’s always great to get feedback so I know I’m delivering something of value.
Cheers
Andrea
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The Sh*t Show
The Sh*t Show is a Livestream happening every Friday, where Andrea T Edwards, Dr. David Ko, Richard Busellato and Joe Augustin, as well as special guests, discuss the world’s most pressing issues across all angles of the polycrisis, working to make sense of the extremely challenging and complex times we are all going through, plus what we can do about it. Help us move the needle so we can change the name of the show to something more genteel when (or if) it is no longer a sh*t show.
Uncommon Courage: an invitation
Uncommon Courage is an invitation to be your courageous best self every day. It’s also an antidote to the overwhelm, fear, and rage rolling around the world. But it’s more than a book; it’s an invitation to join an inclusive community that wants to better understand humanities challenges – both global and personal – in order to take courageous action and create a better world for everyone.
You can buy it on Amazon, Apple Books, Barnes & Noble, Book Depository, Booktopia, Smashwords, Kobo, Gardners, Odilo, Indie Bound, BookShop by BookTrib and Scribd.
Better yet, order it from your local bookstore, so you can #SupportLocal.
You can read the reviews, including a new five-star review on Book Commentary, another five-star review on ReaderViews, a review on BookTrib, and three more on Booklife, another on Book Commentary and Blue Ink Reviews. I’m also collating reviews on my Website too. Have a look and grateful to everyone who has written or recorded one.
Come and join the conversation in my Facebook Group One Billion People with Uncommon Courage.
Listen in to the Uncommon Courage, the podcast on Apple, Spotify and everywhere podcasts are published.
18 Steps to an All-Star LinkedIn Profile
Listed by Book Authority in the 100 Best LinkedIn Books of All Time and 22 Best New LinkedIn eBooks To Read In 2021 and 2022 categories. Grab it today if you want to take your professional presence to the next level! When it comes to LinkedIn, it really is time to ask — can you really afford not to have this book in the hands of every employee?
Are you a Social CEO? The Social CEO: How Social Media Can Make You A Stronger Leader.
Want to claim your stage? Unleash Your Voice – Powerful Public Speaking for Every Woman
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