When you’ve spent decades following the potential threads of collapse to the end – in whatever form it arrives – to be in the moment where it could be ramping up is surreal. This week, for the first time, the conversation on outcomes of the war between the US, Israel and Iran moved from shock (and hopium) to a lot more clarity on where this could take us. Unfortunately, that clarity is extremely grim, and it’s not short term, with months, years and decadal impacts being discussed.
The major reason it’s moved out of the hopium stage is due to attacks on energy infrastructure. Collectively we went from will it be over in days or weeks? To this damage to energy infrastructure will take years, if not decades, to fix. Equally, if the escalation continues – especially if desalination plants are attacked – this timeframe becomes an absolute certainty and the impacts even greater.
The risks continue to rise if Iran shows no constraint – Iran’s willingness to escalate this high-stakes war is its greatest weapon | US-Israel war on Iran | The Guardian.
And whatever is going on in the US is a massive unknown, because deciding to start this war in the first place was completely ill-advised. At this point we must ask – is Trump capable of restraint if he loses the war? Doubtful, no? And there is his team of misfits – Hegseth Invokes Divine Purpose to Justify Military Might – The New York Times.
Israel is an unknown in this mix too. How far will it go? And will it stop if Trump tells it too? Considering the question is already being asked if he’s lost control of the war itself, it makes you wonder – Analysis: Trump faces legacy-defining dilemmas in Iran | CNN Politics.
However, there’s the other side of the story which has started to get the attention it needed, which is the rapid pace of impacts hitting countries all over the world. These impacts are wide and varied, including millions of people not able to cook their own food. We’re three weeks in, and all of this has happened already?
To illustrate this point, in this example from India, not only can people not cook their own food due to cooking gas shortages, it’s also closing down the textile industry, which means we’ll see further ripple effects on people’s jobs, all the way through to the global market for these textiles – India cooking gas crisis forces exodus of textile workers | Oil and Gas | Al Jazeera.
In Thailand, the elephants that “work” at the ancient temple complex of Auytthaya, have to walk to work due to diesel shortages – Diesel shortage forces Ayutthaya elephants to walk.
And wherever you are, your country is experiencing impacts in one or many forms, but if you want to get a global perspective, this article is a good starting point – How the Iran war has sent shocks rippling across the globe | US-Israel war on Iran | The Guardian.
Shocks like this have immediate impacts on people’s ability to do their job and earn money, as well as on businesses – big and small – being forced to close temporarily or drive them out of business full stop.
But as time moves forward, impacts like this mean social cohesion starts to break down, poverty escalates, protests grow, violence follows, more wars start, and before we know it, the chaos we feel today becomes magnified.
That’s hard to live through. That’s hard to think about and face. But that’s where we are and it’s grim. The world has fundamentally changed in the last three weeks and now we all brace for impact. We don’t need to be on the front lines of this war to experience negative externalities, but we will all be impacted regardless.
What can you do? Get prepared. I was talking about stocking up on tinned corn for my husband on the show yesterday. It’s a #FirstWorldProblem example, but I wanted to explain why I said it.
In the coming months, we will see less corn in our fruit & veg shops because it’s fertilizer intensive. In the US, farmers can choose to plant soy or corn, however, soy doesn’t require fertilizer, so the expectation is they will grow more of that.
Reducing the availability of corn in the market means less corn AND it will be more expensive, but it also means higher costs to feed farm animals, resulting in higher prices for animal agriculture, and that means higher prices for chicken, beef, lamb, eggs, cheese and milk for us, the consumer. That’s ALL in front of us. It’s not an immediate impact, but it IS coming, because planting season is NOW and farmers can’t get or afford fertilizer because of the war. A ripple effect in action.
This Substack explains this scenario better than I – THE NITROGEN TRAP – Shanaka Anslem Perera.
There are other considerations, especially financial, and if you also factor in climate impacts and the forthcoming El Niño, being laser focused on preparation is critical. As an example, grid independence is something I’ve been speaking about for a long time, and now we have experienced why it’s important.
However, as we move quickly into the hot season here in Asia, people not independent of the grid may not be able to cool themselves, and it isn’t just because of the war in Iran. In heat extremes, electrical grids start to fail once temperatures pass 48°C. It’s happened in the past, and as it gets hotter, it will happen more.
So, if you can prioritize energy independence right now, it’s a very good idea. Don’t forget to focus on community solutions too, because when you take care of your neighbours, social cohesion is stronger, which is good for you too.
To help get your minds around this complex time and how to prepare, Nate Hagens goes deeper than corn or solar panels.
This is a serious time, and the risks are confronting us daily, so let’s make sure we prepare ourselves and our families, because if we don’t, we’ll get stuck in a scramble when the shit really hits the fan, which is when everything is harder and more expensive.
If you want to keep up to date on the news, but don’t want to face the overwhelm of this moment, especially the emotional intensity of social media as the panic and despair starts to escalate, I update the news page on my website at least once a day. Use it to keep yourself informed, while protecting yourself from the non-stop noise and overwhelm of the media and social media landscape.
That’s why I do this. I navigate the maelstrom, so you don’t have to. What’s included is everything I read, watch and listen to every day. I share this page without opinion (not this blog obvs, but the page), and as a way of getting as much information from around the world and across multiple media sources, to provide a view of what is happening in the world right now. Use it as a tool for your own preparation. This is a service, not a business. The goal is collective resilience, nothing else.
Friends content and my own
We talked through a lot of the issues yesterday on The Sh*t Show, so if you haven’t had a chance to watch it, sit back and do it now. It’s not just about the war, but we work hard to make sense of all the different parts, so our listeners can make sense of this time too. We also have some fun, because no matter how dark it gets, having a laugh is important.
Dig into the news
As I said, the world news page is updated daily, so check in whenever it suits you. It covers news and thought leadership across all issues relevant to the polycrisis, as well as some light stuff, because we can’t be serious all the time. To get to the news, click through on the image below, and a reminder, this goes back weeks, so have a scan and read/watch/listen to whatever jumps out at you.
Let me know what caught your attention? Or share with me what has your attention now? There’s a lot going on, which means none of us can cover everything. Besides, it’s always great to get feedback so I know I’m delivering something of value.
Cheers
Andrea
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The Sh*t Show
The Sh*t Show is a Livestream happening every Friday, where Andrea T Edwards, Dr. David Ko, Richard Busellato and Joe Augustin, as well as special guests, discuss the world’s most pressing issues across all angles of the polycrisis, working to make sense of the extremely challenging and complex times we are all going through, plus what we can do about it. Help us move the needle so we can change the name of the show to something more genteel when (or if) it is no longer a sh*t show.
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