I always track US Elections closely, and this one is no different, but boy I can’t wait for November 5th to be a distant memory – it’s exhausting. I personally think Kamala Harris will win by a landslide, and predict 310-312 electoral college votes at a minimum – let’s see if I’m right huh?
I know many around the world are deeply concerned about a Trump win, but I want to highlight some key reasons I don’t think this will happen, and it’s from tracking the media and the global conversation across many different types of people discussing the election.
Here’s just a few off the top of my head
- Michelle Obama famously said, when they go low, we go high, and thankfully they’ve learned this strategy isn’t working and many are now going for the jugular. Gloves off time
- Polls are interesting beasts, but do not track voting preferences for anyone who has never voted before, which means four years of newly registered youth votes are not being counted, and younger voters traditionally go Democrat. There’s also a bunch of new GOP-leaning polls, with no track record at all, and they are not trustworthy. These polls are adding to the belief that it’s a close race, which I don’t believe at all
- Women over 50 are famously ignored (in every way), but this group is largely voting for Harris. Over 50 women vote in larger numbers than any other demographic and in 2024, they are sick of the attacks on women’s rights. When Trump was elected in 2016, data showed it was white women who made it happen, and after the constant stream of disrespect towards women in that election cycle, it broke my heart. Moving forward, women in the US determine elections – never forget that
- Non-college voters – the main demographic for Trump – have gone from 33+ in 2016, to 31+ in 2020, and it’s now at 29+. That might not seem like a lot, but he lost in 2020 with 31+, so how can he win when he’s lost even more of his typical voter?
- There is a mis and disinformation campaign going on and it looks like groundwork to claim election fraud and interference. There is no doubt things are going to get ugly after-the-fact, so a massive win by Democrats is required
- Musk went in to help Trump, but he has been a disaster. He doesn’t know what he’s doing and not only will all this backfire on him personally (the lawsuits are coming in thick and fast now), but he is a liability to the GOP. Fascinating to watch all of this play out though – and this is just the latest: Musk’s reported contacts with Putin trigger anxiety in Washington – POLITICO
So, there’s a few thoughts I wanted to share, because everyone I speak with thinks Trump is going to win, but I just don’t see it. The American people are not stupid and enough have had it with the ugly, divisive politics of the last decade. I know you may be seeing something else, but I’m sticking with this. You can laugh at me when the votes are counted if I got it wrong.
This guy hasn’t changed his prediction that it will be a Harris/Walz win either.
Some important reads this week
- World on track for ‘catastrophic’ 3.1C of global warming this century, UN warns | The Independent – please do understand what 3.1C means, it’s not good
- Biodiversity declining even faster in ‘protected’ areas, scientists warn Cop16 | The Guardian
- Climate scientist sounds alarm on emissions growth: ‘Every day in Singapore will be beyond the limits of human existence’ | News | Eco-Business | Asia Pacific – this is where I live and it’s already hot!
- Would abandoning false hope help us to tackle the climate crisis? | The Guardian
- How EU’s China policy anticipates Trump’s return to the White House after 2024 election | South China Morning Post
- US defence secretary: Evidence shows North Korean troops are in Russia | Euronews
- Small boats traded by Channel smugglers in German city of Essen
A final one, because it’s a totally cool story: Lost Silk Road cities unearthed in Uzbekistan’s high mountains
And if you want to listen to a beautiful man, please spend the time absorbing this wisdom. He’s so right about how humanity must deeply transform if we have any chance of rising to this moment for our species.
Favorite visual
Love this, sums it up perfectly!
Friends content and my own
It was so wonderful to have John Maynard on Climate Courage to discuss getting our cities climate ready. Such deep insights – have a listen if you missed the live show.
Dig into the news
Plenty more to read, listen to or watch, so do click through to the reads at the image below, and a reminder, this platform (elink.io) means the articles go back weeks, so have a scan and read/watch/listen to whatever jumps out at you.
Let me know what caught your attention? Or share with me what has your attention now? There’s a lot going on, which means none of us can cover everything. Besides, it’s always great to get feedback so I know I’m delivering something of value.
Cheers
Andrea
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