We did our final Know Show for the year this week, and it’s always a chance to look back on the year we’ve had, because it’s certainly been one hell of a year. One of the parts I focused on in the discussion is what happened from a planetary scale – as in the major stories concerning our environment. I don’t refer to climate change, because that is only one part of what we should be looking at.
To really appreciate the scale of challenges we face, a great place to start is the Stockholm Resilience Centres’ Nine Planetary Boundaries, and we have already crossed six of the nine.
The nine planetary boundaries are
- Climate change
- Novel entities – herbicides, pesticides, plastics including microplastics, GMOs and nuclear waste
- Stratospheric ozone depletion
- Atmospheric aerosol loading
- Ocean acidification – species reproduction, marine ecosystems, the food chain
- Biogeochemical flows – water pollution by nitrates – nitrogen – leading to eutrophication of freshwater – phosphorus – causing anoxia in the oceans + proliferation of green algae
- Freshwater use – green water is rainfall, soil moisture and evaporation, Blue water is visible water, so rivers, lakes, etc..
- Land-system change – including deforestation, biodiversity loss, soil erosion, increase of GHG emissions, decrease in CO2 storage capacity, carbon depletion, and risk of flooding
- Change in biosphere integrity – living things, ecosystems, and living species
I encourage everyone to learn about the Nine Planetary Boundaries and to watch any speeches by Dr Johan Rockström and his colleagues. Here’s a recent speech worth your time.
Let’s dig into the planetary crisis this year
We had the shocking floods in Spain in October, it’s worst in 50 years, resulting in more than 200 deaths and numerous missing persons. The long-term impacts are a disaster too. Watch this video for the aftermath, something we rarely hear about, because we’ve already moved onto the next disaster.
But we’ve had a whole year of extreme floods. Have you forgotten the Brazilian Floods back in April? Absolutely catastrophic, with Rio Grande do Sul seeing more than 90% of the state flooded, which is an area equivalent to the size of the UK. It displaced nearly 600,000 people and caused 169 deaths.
We’ve also seen dramatic floods in Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, Sudan and many more, killing thousands, displacing millions and causing substantial infrastructure damage, as well as the destruction of agriculture. This is a huge issue for poorer countries.
If we are not already paying attention, all extreme weather events contribute to food security risk, and of course, more inflation. Governments can’t fix that. Strongman leaders can’t either, so any simple answers to this challenge are a lie.
Heat is a killer of people, wildlife and agriculture too. I’m based in Asia, and we had an extended hot season this year. It was brutal and I’m not looking forward to the next hot season, which will start around February. Thankfully I’m now in Singapore, which is an incredibly resilient city for all extreme weather events. Much of the region is not.
Thailand is one of those countries that lacks resilience and I was there during its last hot season and we suffered horrendous heatwaves. These heatwaves extended across India, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam and Thailand, all leading to widespread health issues and disruptions. We still have no real idea how many people died.
By June, in Pakistan, it was enduring extreme temperatures, with Karachi recording highs above 45°C, that resulted in more than 500 deaths (a conservative estimate) and thousands of heatstroke cases.
Moving onto drought. Italy and South America saw severe droughts that affected agricultural production, leading to food shortages and severe economic challenges. But in Zambia and Zimbabwe and other Southern African countries, they are experiencing the worst drought in a century with millions at risk. Currently there are 27 million lives affected by the worst drought in a century, with 21 million children malnourished.
Because of the enormous buildup of heat in the oceans, hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones are more intense, with the United States struck by a record number of hurricanes in 2024, which is now the second costliest on record, inflicting at least $220 billion in damages and 400 deaths overall. The four hurricanes with the biggest impact were Beryl, Debby, Helene, and Milton.
But it is the poorer nations that really suffer and the Philippines copped the brunt during its typhoon season – with four significant storms in 10 days in November – the most active season in history. It now faces a nearly doubling risk of deadly typhoons, and the impact on the country is devastating. Food insecurity will be one of the biggest long-term impacts.
Some highlights on where we are
No plastics treaty, not enough money for developing nations at Cop29, and basically, if anyone thinks our leaders or the industry’s most responsible will do what needs to be done, they won’t. We must come together as a global society and get to work. We also ALL need to reduce our energy and material consumption by about 70%. We can do it.
Because last year (2023) was the hottest year in 125,000 years and well, 2024 looks like it will be hotter. We have also passed 1.6°C warming. Amazingly, we have faced this alarming milestone for a while now, which highlights the accelerating pace of climate change and the critical need for immediate and ambitious mitigation strategies, and yet, still no sign of action relative to the scale of change required. We really aren’t getting the message.
Some good news right now, there is an International Climate Case at The Hague, where Island nations vulnerable to climate impacts are seeking to define the legal obligations of countries in addressing climate change. The proceedings could set important precedents for international climate policy and accountability.
Sustainability legislation and corporate accountability has also increased worldwide, with stricter regulations and penalties for environmental harm, signalling a global shift toward more responsible practices. The EU is definitely leading this, but there is pushback.
This is all important, because we have no time to lose. We’ve had historic wildfires in Canada, leading to massive evacuations and air quality concerns across North America. The fires were among the most severe in the country’s history, exacerbated by prolonged drought conditions.
The biggest challenge with fires is it increases warming, so we’ve got to get a handle on it. To illustrate, severe wildfires in 2023 contributed over 640 million metric tons of CO₂, which exacerbated global warming. Fires in the Northern Hemisphere also drop brown carbon on the Arctic, which means the ice melts faster and the earth absorbs more heat. As a result, the Arctic is predicted to be ice free before the end of this decade. A Blue Ocean event is on the horizon.
In even bigger news, we are seeing permafrost thawing and wildfires right across the Arctic region and while traditionally a carbon sink due to the permafrost, it is now becoming a net source of CO₂ emissions.
Less clouds equal more heat. In 2023, we saw a reduction in low-altitude clouds, which typically reflect solar energy back out into the atmosphere, and this is why we experienced such rapid warming, because we saw an increased absorption of heat by the Earth. This is what’s called the earth energy imbalance. This phenomenon contributed to an unexpected rise in global temperatures – approx. .2-.3C of recent warming – suggesting climate models may have underestimated future warming.
We’re witnessing a catastrophic decline in global wildlife populations. The World Wildlife Fund’s (WWF) Living Planet Report 2024 revealed a staggering 73% average decline in monitored wildlife populations between 1970 and 2020. Time to do something about it, before it is too late don’t you think?
The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024 identified biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse as critical threats to humanity. The report emphasizes the necessity for immediate, large-scale actions to reverse these trends and safeguard ecological and human health.
There is no question that we must invest substantially and worldwide in biodiversity conservation. Because another critical issue is nearly half of migratory species are in decline, with 20% at risk of extinction. This could get worse, with the combined effects of rising temperatures and altered land use projected to result in significant species losses across all regions.
Of course, it’s not just on land, but our oceans too and the alarm bells are ringing.
We saw a decline in the global ocean health index scores this year. The 2024 Ocean Health Index (OHI) reported a global score of 69 out of 100, marking the largest decline ever observed in its 13 years of assessments. This drop reflects deteriorations in areas such as biodiversity, clean waters, and sustainable fisheries.
Some key issues in the oceans
- Elevated ocean temperatures have widespread implications, including intensified weather events and disrupted marine ecosystems
- We are facing an ongoing crisis of overfishing
- We are seeing significant declines in oxygen levels, which threaten marine life and ecosystem stability
- Ocean acidification in increasing, resulting from increased CO₂ absorption, which adversely affects marine organisms, particularly those with calcium carbonate structures. Goodbye crab and lobster on your plate
- Horrendous plastic pollution plagues our oceans and has a massive impact – understand novel entities
- Higher sea temperatures have led to widespread coral bleaching events, causing significant damage to coral reef ecosystems globally, which are vital for marine biodiversity
- The decline in ocean health has resulted in reduced marine biodiversity, impacting ecosystem services, and the livelihoods of communities dependent on marine resources
So yeah, we’re really doing a number on ourselves and 2024 must be a wake-up call. It is time to act at scale across all these issues and understand the complexity of the challenge we face. The whole world’s attention needs to be squarely focused on this now.
What’s ahead in 2025?
As we look ahead, Australia is bracing for a potentially horrific fire season, while Queensland is currently dealing with floods. The Global South is preparing (I hope) for extreme heat with the hot season kicking off anytime from February, although South America, Africa and many of the Pacific Islands are already facing the heat.
And of course, and we have the potential for feedback loops, which could be disastrous, with AMOC front and centre in the discussion this year, because it is closer to collapse than predicted. It’s going to get really cold up North and really hot down South if that happens.
When it comes to truly facing this crisis, if not now, honestly, what’s it going to take? From all I’m seeing, this is the ONLY story of our time. And everything we’re currently doing is not even close to the scale of change required.
I know it’s not a happy summary, but I spent a lot of time putting this together for The Know Show and wanted to share the text here, as I didn’t get to discuss it all. The clock is ticking, so we need to wake up and get adapting toot sweet!
Favorite visual
If you’ve been paying attention to the drone coverage in the US, this will make sense to you.
Friends content and my own
The Know Show is done for another year, and it was a pleasure to have Taryn-lee KearneyandNatalie Nancy Tan join us for our final wrap up show. A lot happened in 2024, and we go through the highlights, including four chunkier sections discussing geopolitics, sporting and cultural highlights, the planetary crisis (summarized above), and Joe’s favorite topic, technological and scientific achievements. Joe and I finish with some take-aways from the year, including the advice that we can all take inspiration from eight-year-olds 😊. Have a listen.
Dig into the news
Plenty more to read, listen to or watch, so do click through to the reads at the image below, and a reminder, this platform (elink.io) means the articles go back weeks, so have a scan and read/watch/listen to whatever jumps out at you.
Let me know what caught your attention? Or share with me what has your attention now? There’s a lot going on, which means none of us can cover everything. Besides, it’s always great to get feedback so I know I’m delivering something of value.
Cheers
Andrea
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