The future we warned about is here, and as expected, it’s not one single event, and it’s not only climate change. Instead, it’s a compounding reality, aka the polycrisis. It’s showing up as ecological breakdown colliding with food and water insecurity, economic fragility, public-health risk, energy stress, political denial and worsening instability.
We have known for decades that this is where business as usual would lead us, and we haven’t worked out how to put our foot on the breaks. However, what has surprised many experts is how quickly the conditions have converged, and how unprepared governments, institutions and the public remain.
What is not appreciated, is that of course we’re in an impossible bind. Our politicians avoid necessary action because its costs are immediate and visible, while the benefits more long-term, and because transition policies fail when they’re seen as unfair. There’s this misguided idea that we can continue as usual, including growing our economies, AND deal with the emergency at the same time. We can’t.
High-consuming countries and households need to start doing rapid, deep reductions in energy and material consumption, alongside an expansion of the public services that enable decent lives at far lower resource cost. We also need to urgently replenish nature on land and in the sea. That is the path ahead, it’s a massive job, and no country is adequately prepared for the scale of disruption now becoming apparent.
So here with are, with a mega El Niño on our doorstep, and the impacts of this event will be enormous and incredibly deadly. I encourage you to read a couple of pieces to really understand what’s ahead.
Worth your time
First up this piece by Zeke Hausfather is very important, and we need to remember that Zeke is never alarmist – The Strongest El Niño Ever – by Zeke Hausfather. His conclusions are based on 14 seasonal models and 667 ensemble runs, pointing to a roughly 90% chance that the 2026–27 El Niño will be the strongest observed, potentially peaking near 3.6°C above its Niño 3.4 baseline, far beyond the previous record of 2.75°C.
This forecast is outside the range of observed events. That does not make the outcome certain, because seasonal models have never been tested against an El Niño of this projected magnitude. However, the risk is substantial enough that governments, businesses and households should be preparing now, not after impacts are underway. Living in Asia, this truly frightens me, and I don’t frighten easily.
Next up, ‘Super’ El Niño could cause global food price shock lasting into 2028, analysts say | Global economy | The Guardian. We will see drought, floods, heat, and damaged harvests, including rice, wheat, sugar, soya, corn, palm oil, coffee and cocoa. The estimates see global agricultural output falling by 14.3%, core commodity prices rising 10–50%, and the most exposed crops potentially 50–100%+. This will build and persist into 2028.
Forget empty supermarket shelves, famine, food inflation, food poverty, etc.. are all on the cards. Practical preparedness matters and includes knowing your local risks, building modest household resilience where you can, supporting local food networks, and avoiding panic-buying that makes scarcity worse for others.
Another piece: ‘Climate free fall’: why the biggest risk to our economies is yet to be recognized and the conclusion is what makes this a polycrisis, because it is systemic.
Food systems, energy, finance, public health and political stability are designed around relatively predictable conditions. Without that predictability, we can expect the authoritarian march across the world’s democracies to continue. This is precisely the moment when leaders who deny evidence, scapegoat vulnerable people and promise a return to an impossible status quo become most dangerous.
We have agency
If you feel like having some agency and justice factored in, this is a great read – Can everyone live a ‘good life’ without destroying the planet? | New Scientist.
This argues that a decent life for everyone is still technically possible within planetary limits, but not through universalising high-consumption lifestyles. We need to shift from wasteful private consumption toward universal access to what genuinely improves life: housing, healthcare, education, affordable food, public transport, secure work and resilient local ecosystems.
We’ve got work to do and it requires everyone everywhere doing their part. Governments can’t do this without us getting behind them – that’s impossible. If we continue to have unrealistic expectations about what our governments can do, we are going to end up in a world of hell.
My contribution
This is why I developed The Overshoot Challenge – this is the answer to: What Can I Do? Sign up and get going, then bring everyone with you, because we need to mobilise a billion people to make imperfect but meaningful changes, and to demand the structural changes individuals cannot deliver alone.
Just so you know, I’m making no money from this (it’s costing me), but it’s so important and contains everything I’ve been able to come up with. In it you’ll find more than 300 practical actions across 14 areas, from consumption and food to civic action, community resilience and influencing institutions. Start with one action you can sustain and bring other people with you.
In case you think I cheated and just used AI to do this, in the photo below, you’ll see big pieces of paper with tiny writing. I’ve been brainstorming ideas across government, business, social media/media/influencers and You and I for years now. This is what I stuffed into the backend and carefully crafted every single idea. AI couldn’t do that for me. It was intense.
Do us a favor and download it please. If you can, donate to support this work, because I really want to be able to translate this into multiple languages, but that’s a big cost I can’t carry right now.
I’m also working on a new site – Where You Live — Your Polycrisis Risk Profile. This is focused on where you live. It’s an information navigator for the age of the polycrisis and all you need to do is enter your location so you can understand your risks.
It’s really comprehensive and links to the data and science in each area. It also ties to my framework “8 Categories of the polycrisis™” so it goes well beyond climate change.
I’m looking for feedback on this site. If you do a search on where you live and see issues, please click on the feedback link and let me know so I can improve it. This site will evolve over time and there are other areas to include, like climate justice. It’s coming.
There are more tools I’m working on too, because one way I know I can help is to make sense of information. It’s such a massive and complicated crisis we face, understanding how to navigate the maelstrom of information is important.
With that said, most people won’t ever want this level of detail, and that’s OK. But for those who do, I’m pulling it together.
Time for a break
This coming week, my youngest son, Jax, starts his National Service journey – which is bringing up all sorts of emotions – but I know this will be great for him, especially building his resilience. As a parent, I’ve been very conscious of raising my boys, so they are ready for the future that is coming. My priorities have always been enjoy life, enjoy the moments, and don’t take anything too seriously. But we’ve also focused on helping them build practical skills, so they can be ready and contribute in difficult times.
When they were little, I told them I’d take care of everything, so they could enjoy their childhoods, and they did. Then they got old enough to know that me saying that was the same as believing in Santa Claus. So today, we have very honest and open conversations about the reality of this time. There are no rose-tinted glasses here, but there is also hope in the future, because it’s worth fighting for.
We must face this time with steady resolve, lead with wisdom and integrity, and we absolutely need to get rid of the grifters and destroyers who seem hell-bent on taking us over the edge. That’s why we all must get involved. Everyone has a role to play, please start embracing yours.
Fear is not a plan, and neither is denial. We cannot prevent every impact now locked in, but we can reduce suffering, protect what remains, and build societies better able to withstand what is coming. That work belongs to all of us, not someday, but now.
I’ll be back sometime in August. I don’t know when. This work is really tiring, because it’s a lot of putting stuff out there and getting nothing back. That said, I have been relentless in this work, because I believe we MUST come together and fight like we’ve never fought before, and we need to do it now.
To keep up with the news, please check in on the world news the polycrisis site. It’s updated every day, and like the other two sites above, you can download it to your phone as an app. Here’s the instructions on how to do it.
Friends content and my own
It was our final The Sh*t Show for the season and we had Kenny Lim, The China Whisperer join us. It was such an insightful conversation and if you want to get a handle on China, please have a listen. Kenny is terrific. Also attend his events or book him for your executive team. He’s a man on a mission.
A big shout out to my co-hosts too – Joe, David and Richard. It’s a lot of work doing this show, but the chance to speak with people who care deeply is something I really value. It really does keep me sane.
Your daily dose of courage
Dig into the news
When you visit the daily news page, remember to save it to your home screen and you can check the news anytime, as it’s updated throughout the day, every day – by a real human, me.
This news curation tool covers news and thought leadership across all issues relevant to the polycrisis, as well as some light stuff, because we can’t be serious all the time. To get to the news, click through on the image below, and a reminder, it goes back weeks, so have a scan and read/watch/listen to whatever jumps out at you. The categories are right on top as well, so you can dig into whatever issue you care about.
Let me know what caught your attention? Or share with me what has your attention now? There’s a lot going on, which means none of us can cover everything. Besides, it’s always great to get feedback so I know I’m delivering something of value.
Cheers
Andrea
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The Sh*t Show
The Sh*t Show is a Livestream happening every Friday, where Andrea T Edwards, Dr. David Ko, Richard Busellato and Joe Augustin, as well as special guests, discuss the world’s most pressing issues across all angles of the polycrisis, working to make sense of the extremely challenging and complex times we are all going through, plus what we can do about it. Help us move the needle so we can change the name of the show to something more genteel when (or if) it is no longer a sh*t show.
Uncommon Courage: an invitation
Uncommon Courage is an invitation to be your courageous best self every day. It’s also an antidote to the overwhelm, fear, and rage rolling around the world. But it’s more than a book; it’s an invitation to join an inclusive community that wants to better understand humanities challenges – both global and personal – in order to take courageous action and create a better world for everyone.
You can buy it on Amazon, Apple Books, Barnes & Noble, Book Depository, Booktopia, Smashwords, Kobo, Gardners, Odilo, Indie Bound, BookShop by BookTrib and Scribd.
Better yet, order it from your local bookstore, so you can #SupportLocal.
You can read the reviews, including a new five-star review on Book Commentary, another five-star review on ReaderViews, a review on BookTrib, and three more on Booklife, another on Book Commentary and Blue Ink Reviews. I’m also collating reviews on my Website too. Have a look and grateful to everyone who has written or recorded one.
Come and join the conversation in my Facebook Group One Billion People with Uncommon Courage.
Listen in to the Uncommon Courage, the podcast on Apple, Spotify and everywhere podcasts are published.
18 Steps to an All-Star LinkedIn Profile
Listed by Book Authority in the 100 Best LinkedIn Books of All Time and 22 Best New LinkedIn eBooks To Read In 2021 and 2022 categories. Grab it today if you want to take your professional presence to the next level! When it comes to LinkedIn, it really is time to ask — can you really afford not to have this book in the hands of every employee?
Are you a Social CEO? The Social CEO: How Social Media Can Make You A Stronger Leader.
Want to claim your stage? Unleash Your Voice – Powerful Public Speaking for Every Woman
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